Oxford Analytica "loveste" din nou, scriind pe larg despre Romania in contextul tensiunilor sociale si al motiunii de cenzura.
Textul, publicat joi, poate fi citit in partea a doua a acestei postari.
1. Cu acest al treilea articol consecutiv negativ la adresa regimului Basescu (va reamintesc primul si al doilea), a devenit foarte clar ca influenta portocalie asupra OXAN, care in trecut - de exemplu in timpul razboiului lui Basescu cu Tariceanu in 2006-2008, sau al crizei politice din toamna lui 2009 - a generat niste articole de o partialitate (pro-Basescu) incredibila, a luat sfarsit. Se pare ca OXAN si-a diversificat sursele, sau sursa/sursele pe care o/le are si-a(u) schimbat orientarea. Este parte a pierderii accentuate a lustrului imaginii in strainatate pe care si-o creasera la un moment dat basescienii (pana sa le intre tara pe mana si sa arate de ce sunt capabili).
2. Din pacate, echilibrarea pozitiei nu echivaleaza si cu un salt calitativ semnificativ in analizele OXAN.
Precedentul articol - un fel de lamentatie cu privire la esecul romanesc, fara nici o sugestie constructiva - mi s-a parut slab din punct de vedere al analizei, desi validitatea multora dintre constatari nu poate fi contestata.
Ultimul articol este cam in aceeasi nota.
In mare, surprinde corect evenimentele semnificative din ultima perioada, in principal atmosfera devenita exploziva chiar in aparatul de stat - protestul politistilor, cel al functionarilor din Ministerul de Finante s.a.m.d., acesta fiind efectul previzibil al asa-zisei reforme basesciene a statului, despre substratul careia am mai scris aici si aici (deci nu chiar o surpriza, cum scrie OXAN).
Dar analiza este dezamagitoare, mergand de la naivitati induiosatoare ("supriza" ca un nou guvern Boc a fost votat de acelasi parlament care-l demisese inainte prin motiune de cenzura - se vede ca persoana care a scris fie n-a urmarit atent evenimentele din toamna trecuta, cand basescienii au calcat in picioare cadrul constitutional si institutia Parlamentului; fie, daca era in tema, s-o fi gandit ca e prea complicat de explicat strainilor ce s-a intamplat de fapt; in ambele cazuri, o nota proasta pentru autor!) pana la contorsiuni de logica spre final, cand eu, sincer, n-am prea inteles care se doreste a fi concluzia. Din ultimele doua paragrafe nu rezulta daca autorul crede ca opozitia intr-adevar este pregatita si doreste sa preia puterea acum, sau doar se preface (ceea ce cred eu, cum am scris aici si aici); se afirma clar doar ca situatia actuala este nesustenabila (eh, asta este corect... dar noi stim bine ca din pacate Romania poate sa ramana suspendata mult timp in situatii absolut nesustenabile si intolerabile - amintiti-va de exemplu ultimul deceniu ceausist, daca l-ati trait). In plus, se mai face si asumptia - discutabila - ca n-ar exista alternativa la actualele politici zise "de austeritate" (pe care eu le cred mai degraba o incercare deliberata a puterii de a arunca tara in haos, cum am explicat aici) si ca un viitor guvern ar trebui sa ramana strict in aceiasi parametri, conveniti de Basescu cu FMI. Dar asta e o discutie mai lunga.
O concluzie as trage, totusi, si anume ca, tot mai frecvent si mai intens, Romania proiecteaza (si) in exterior imaginea unei tari neguvernabile. Cu o asemenea imagine, e de asteptat sa primim niste lovituri dure pe plan extern in perioada urmatoare. N-ar trebui sa fim surprinsi ca, in anul 2010, se poate face aluzie la posibilitatea excluderii Romaniei din Consiliul Europei (pentru a da asigurari ca nu este vorba de asta... dar faptul ca e nevoie de astfel de asigurari spune foarte mult!). De fapt, n-ar trebui sa ne mai mire mare lucru.
Iata acum si textul, in original:
ROMANIA: Old policies might work with new government
October 21, 2010
EVENT: Parliament is to debate a censure motion on the government next week.
SIGNIFICANCE: Owing to the global financial crisis and the poor management of its effects on the country, the government's austerity measures have affected most of the population and provoked social unrest. It is now time for the opposition to show whether it can assume responsibility for governing a country deep in economic crisis.
ANALYSIS: Protests at the Ministry of Finance represent a deepening of social unrest in the country. Hundreds of employees started a spontaneous protest on October 13 at the ministry's headquarters in Bucharest. They ended their protest the following evening on promises that bonuses representing a large part of their take-home pay would be restored.
Protests peak. Although weak at the beginning of the crisis, social protests have reached a peak in the past month, mainly because of the direct effects of wage cuts imposed at the end of the summer. In a country that has only a very weak civic sense (see ROMANIA: System excludes the energetic and idealistic - September 16, 2010), the protests of the last few weeks came as a surprise, especially because of the social groups that showed their discontent:
· On September 24, about 6,000 policemen and prison guards protested outside the presidential palace against a 25% wage cut.
· The Finance Ministry incident led to an unprecedented wave of protests across the country. They were objecting to the suspension of bonuses as well as the wage cut.
Both cases demonstrate a loss of government authority due to drastic implementation of austerity measures. Both could have serious consequences:
· Police. President Traian Basescu dropped his official police escort and Interior Minister Vasile Blaga resigned. People who are supposed to uphold the law were demonstrating on the streets; the rupture between them and the presidency has the potential to damage national security. The president, who should act as mediator between state institutions, failed to remain objective and deepened tensions when he refused any dialogue with the protesters.
· Civil servants. The Ministry of Finance is the crucial institution when it comes to the state's finances and financial operations. The protest came as staff were working on the state budget draft for 2011 and waiting for a working visit from the IMF. It could further deepen the population's distrust of state institutions, with salary payments in state-run institutions and tax collection stopping countrywide.
Opposition opportunity. The country's dire economic state and the implementation of austerity measures has managed to unify the opposition, despite the struggle for supremacy between the leaders of its two main parties. Motions against Prime Minister Emil Boc's government have been brought to parliament before:
· A year ago, the minority Boc government was the first since 1989 to be dismissed by a parliamentary vote of no confidence (see ROMANIA: Crisis reveals weak basis for recent growth - October 14, 2009). Yet the president reappointed Boc to form a new government which, surprisingly enough, received a vote of confidence from the same legislative body that had rejected him weeks before, which only served to disillusion the population with politics.
· In June, the reformed Boc government survived a vote of no confidence in its proposal to cut public sector wages by 25% and pensions by 15% (see ROMANIA: Austerity measures meet strong challenge - June 3, 2010).
However, amid social turmoil, the voices of the opposition have become clearer and more united, and the Social Democrats (PSD) and National Liberals (PNL) have drafted together a legislative motion meant to bring down the government. Both the main opposition parties have created their own policy papers, to come into effect if they assume power. Moreover, the Liberals nominated a shadow cabinet of eleven members, although this has generated some tension between the two parties, with the Social Democrats accusing the Liberals of not playing fair. Still, the unrest has increased collaboration between the two. The PSD and NLP have decided -- officially, at least -- to govern together, with a common cabinet and prime minister.
Anti-Basescu. Both parties see the president as the main factor in the political crisis and have set themselves two main objectives for the near future:
· the dismissal of the government; and
· the suspension of the president, on the basis of alleged tendencies towards dictatorship and violation of the constitution.
Both the opposition parties and important parts of the media see Basescu as the main source of conflict in Romanian politics. For the six years that he has been president, his relations with parliament been not at all good, leading to a war of declarations between the two institutions and mutual allegations of lack of respect for the constitution. Because of the financial crisis, Basescu has lost most of his popular support, as public opinion sees him as a source of stress in political life. Also, the president's relationship with the media has made the headlines, with Basescu allegedly insulting journalists and publicly revealing distrust for the mass media. All these tensions have intensified in the past few weeks, with the protests at the Finance Ministry the tip of the iceberg.
Outlook. The opposition now sees its moment to prove that it can present a solution to all of Romania's problems. The motion against the government will be presented to parliament next week. The text will include a series of measures that the opposition parties want to apply if the government falls. Although the opposition only has 213 seats in parliament and needs the support of 236 members, its hopes of passing the motion through both houses come from evident tensions within the ruling coalition and pressure from public opinion.
Should the government fall, the opposition may not prove capable of assuming office. The Liberals and Social Democrats have ideological differences and would have to get past them to govern in the best interests of the country. In addition, any new government would have to continue the austerity measures and the accord with the IMF. The opposition may therefore be merely posturing in order to score points ahead of the 2012 elections; it may not want to take responsibility for a country in full crisis.
CONCLUSION: The current situation is unsustainable. The government has failed to win over the population and has managed to create social turmoil of the kind that marked the beginning of the 1990s. A new government, even if it carries on with the austerity measures, might restore the population's confidence, at least for a short period, easing the wave of protest that has overtaken the country.