Wednesday, August 6, 2025

Back to tribalism: the implications of the West's toxic relation with Israel and what can still be done (EN)

On 7 October 2023 Israel suffered a horrendous terrorist attack from Gaza that led to around 1,200 people losing their lives and some 250 being taken hostage by Hamas. Since then, Israel has waged a devastating war on Gaza that turned into a genocide. However, this is not the focus of this post, as the characterisation of Israel's actions in Gaza has been debated by credible experts, relevant international organisations and courts, while the daily horrors occurring there are sufficiently available to those willing to know. Rather, this post attempts to outline, mostly from a Western perspective, the nature and broader implications of the West's relation with Israel in the current context.

1. From tribalism to universalism: a civilisational journey

Evolving from a tribal outlook, which is largely the default state through most of history, towards a form of universalism is the typical ascending evolution of a civilisation. For Western civilisation, this evolution from a clan / ethno-centric perspective to one that (in principle) provides a place for everyone has culminated with what we call liberal democracy. While it cannot be said that its ideals have been fully attained in any given society, the model of liberal democracy has been the leading one globally in the aftermath of WW2 and in particular after the end of the Cold War, and has largely shaped the system of international relations and institutions since then.

It is fair to acknowledge, however, that liberal democracy - not just as a lived reality, but also as a model - is increasingly contested in the West itself, and for various reasons has lost at least in part its attraction for the rest of the world, which has been a main source for Western soft power. While the reasons for this decline and loss of attraction, particularly visible after the financial crisis of the late 2000s, would merit a separate discussion (they can range from botched globalisation to increasing inequality to woke excesses or even imperial overreach), what can be said here is that the 'traditionalists', 'illiberals' and other populist types who claim to revive Western civilisation by reconnecting it to its roots are in fact regressives who want to walk back from universalism to a more tribal, parochial outlook - and this regressive, backward-looking tendency is at the core of movements like 'Make America Great Again'.

2. Jews and universalism

Historically the Jews have been among, if not the main victim of tribalism, in the form of ethnic and religious intolerance. For over 2000 years, they have been - particularly in the West - the persecuted minority of choicefacing systematic discrimination, exclusion and recurrent pogroms, culminating with mass extermination in the Holocaust.

On the other hand, and perhaps not unrelated to the above, Jewish personalities have been essential contributors to Western civilisation, and in particular to its evolution towards universalism. Indeed, any intellectual history of liberal democracy and universalism is dense with Jewish enlightened thinkers. And certainly Jews - and indeed any persecuted minority - stand to benefit from universalism, as illustrated by their flourishing in liberal democracies (with the US a good example). 

The flip side of the above is that a departure from universalism and a regression towards tribalism and intolerance is a direct threat to the Jewry worldwide. Increasing antisemitism in Western societies is the 'canary in the coal mine' with regard to such regression.

3. Is there such a thing as 'Judeo-Christian' civilisation?

Western supporters of Israel regularly emphasize that Israel is a bulwark of Western civilisation and often label this common civilisation as 'Judeo-Christian'. This rhetoric - exemplified below with US Representative Randy Fine (R-FL) and US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee - is used to emphasize the enduring bond between Israel and the West and more specifically to justify full and unconditional support by the West to Israel. 




This is not neutral historical, philosophical or theological commentary, but extremely loaded political rhetoric that requires unpacking, starting with the very 'Judeo-Christian' label, which is historically recent (forged in the 1930s) and misleading in a number of ways. 

First, because in the liberal democratic order built by Western civilisation the place of religion is fundamentally different (and less central) than in traditional societies. Therefore applying to contemporary Western civilisation this religion-focused label intrinsically denotes historical regression rather than a current and future-oriented perspective.

Second, the term 'Judeo-Christian', by this very juxtaposition, projects the image of a natural bond and continuity between Judaism and Christianity, and of historical closeness of Jews and Christians. None of these is factually true. From a religious point of view, there is clearly more rupture than continuity between the two faiths. This is particularly salient in terms of tribalism vs universalism: Judaism is largely ethno-centric (Jews are the 'chosen people'), while Christianity brings a radically different, universal message to humanity. For Christians the New Testament explicitly supersedes, not just complements the Old Testament. 

And if we look at history we see that Jews have been persecuted by Christians on a large scale for many centuries, and scapegoated for all kinds of misfortunes (from epidemics to natural disasters) occurring in traditional societies; so the historical perspective evoked by the 'Judeo-Christian' label in fact cancels the very wished-for togetherness (which instead is enabled by contemporary liberal democracy). 

In brief, 'Judeo-Christian' is a recent, ideologically loaded concept that doesn't have a solid base in history or religion and projects a regressive perspective on Western civilisation. But it's precisely this regressive perspective that Israel promotes.

4. Israel as a driver of regression towards tribalism

While Israel is routinely presented as an outpost of Western civilisation and democracy in a part of the world dominated by regressive, authoritarian regimes, the country is fundamentally set-up as an ethno-centric state, based on settler colonialism and apartheid (with many similarities to the former apartheid regime in South Africa). As such, it can at most be linked to a historically outdated pattern of the Western civilisation, one that the collective West has been striving to overcome in recent generations, not to universalist values - such as equal rights - embedded in liberal democracy.

Israel's conduct in Gaza since October 2023, as well as the political rhetoric around it make it glaringly obvious that the policies of the current Israeli regime are not aligned, but rather in stark contrast with the universalist values of liberal democracy. It is not by chance that mainstream public opinion in Western democracies grows increasingly critical of Israel, nor is it by chance that the current Israeli regime finds support among the far-right parties, nazi sympathisers and illiberal ideologues in the West; this apparent paradox alone should give serious pause.

Israel's actions in Gaza directly undermine the world's - and in particular the West's - 'never again!' pledge made in the aftermath of the Holocaust, and drive a regression towards tribalism and intolerance - which, incidentally, is particularly ominous for Jewish people around the world (see point 2 above).

5. The West's toxic relation with Israel

Its relations with the West have been essential for Israel since its inception as a state. Indeed, without strong political backing and multi-dimensional support from the West, including financial and military, Israel would have had a hard time to maintain itself in an admittedly hostile region. The US, the UK and Germany in particular are strongly committed and unconditional supporters to Israel. Leading politicians in these and other Western countries rarely miss an opportunity to affirm and reaffirm their commitment to Israel.

But as Israel more and more obviously looks like an ethno-centric, colonial apartheid regime rather than a liberal democracy, and turned from an underdog into a regional hegemon and bully, Western support has also changed nature from a lifeline to an enabler. And in the context of the events unfolding in Gaza, the relation between Israel and the West has grown particularly toxic in many respects. 

On the one hand, by providing unconditional support and diplomatic cover, the West has contributed to building a sense of entitlement, omnipotence and impunity for Israel. This has encouraged overreach, has created political space for radical, maximalist agendas to the detriment of more balanced and pragmatic approaches, and in time has shifted the overall Israeli public discourse to a kind of generalised lunacy that bodes ill for the country's future. Many actions and statements from Israeli politicians and public figures appear shocking and completely unhinged to most of the outside world, but have been completely normalised inside the Israeli bubble. This growing rift would not be possible without the West's enabling of Israel over a sustained period of time, including during the Gaza genocide. It's to a significant extent due to the West's full, unconditional backing that Israel has lost its bearings. And this builds a major threat to the long-term viability of the Israeli state, because the total support of the West for Israel will not be there forever - not only public opinion about Israel is rapidly souring, but there are clear signs of a generational shift in both US and Europe, with the young generations much less inclined than the older ones to unconditionally support Israel. Hence, the time when Israel on its own will have to reckon with the consequences of its actions and with the region's realities, grievances and interests is approaching.

On the other hand, the outsized influence, and sometimes outright control that Israel exerts on Western politics, longtime a taboo topic in the West, has become extremely visible in recent months and is increasingly scrutinised and questioned. The levers of this influence are largely untransparent (one can see a parallel with similarly surreptitious influence that Russia had, at least until its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, on key politicians in the West). What is clear is that there is a growing fracture between public opinion and the political class when it comes to Israel. In this context, the authorities' response is growing increasingly authoritarian and repressive, sometimes actually using Israeli technologies for societal surveillance, control and repression. Equating criticism of Israel's policies with antisemitism, as now embedded in law in several countries, is a particularly pernicious act: not only it stifles democratic debate and free speech, but it also associates all Jews - many of whom are opposed - to Israel's actions. Equating peaceful protest against genocide with terrorism is just as absurd and dangerous. These trends are profoundly damaging to Western democracies and - if not reversed soon - are bound to have a long-lasting impact.

Not least, by enabling and associating itself with Israel's actions in Gaza, the West is betraying the very international rules-based order that it worked over generations to put in place, is outright sabotaging international institutions that it painstakingly helped create, is abandoning its universalist claim and liberal democratic values, and sacrificing its soft power and its credibility with the Global South. It ultimately degrades its political system and accelerates its own regression towards tribalism and power politics. 

In a nutshell, the costs in historical terms for the West - political, economic, societal, intellectual - from getting entangled into the Gaza genocide are just staggering and cannot be justified going forward. As to Israel, the false sense of impunity enabled by the West's full and unconditional support is stoking a painful, possibly existential reckoning in the future, when the West's support will be withdrawn. 

5. What can the West still do

Way too many people have died in Gaza and tragically it may already be too late to save many of those still alive. Israel itself has largely exhausted its remaining capital of international goodwill and will hardly ever again be seen as the victim. And way too much damage has been done to Western democracies, their stance in the world, to our societies and psyche, and to the international system that we used to call 'rules-based'. 

Changing course is very urgent if the West is to retain a chance to save itself from being completely dragged down into and a spiral of civilisational regression and into global discredit by its current association with Israel's actions. 

Monday, July 5, 2021

On covid-19, the recklessness of UK's politicians poses a continued threat to Europe (EN)

Notwithstanding its successful vaccination campaign (which has been often put in contrast to EU's comparatively sluggish record), the United Kingdom is currently suffering another wave of the coronavirus pandemic, driven by the very contagious 'delta' (a.k.a. 'Indian') variant.

How this came to be is well known, and clearly linked to political decisions made by the UK Government. But the consequences could be very dire for continental Europe.

Indeed (see map below), the countries in the EU currently most affected by the new surge in cases are exactly those who recently welcomed UK tourists with few restrictions or none at all: Portugal and Spain. From there, as recent history demonstrates, it's only a matter of time before the fresh pandemic wave sweeps across the continent.

After last spring's third wave of covid-19 in Europe was driven by the 'alpha' variant of the virus that originated in England, it's now the second time in half a year that the UK is the gateway for a pandemic wave affecting the continent. The main explanation for this recurrent hazard is the continued recklessness in managing this health crisis by the British authorities.




And nor is it set to end.

Sunday, May 23, 2021

The distance between what the UK thinks of itself and how others judge it (EN)

Here is UK's anticipation before last night's Eurovision song contest:



And here are the final results:



So the competitor from the UK was hoping to win... and he came out last with nil (zero!) points.

It's not easy at all to score a clean zero points in an Eurovision contest. Still, the UK has managed this feat twice, and it's the fifth time it has come last.

Sure, you can consider Eurovision - as I do - a largely pointless jamboree with little relation to the quality of the music. Still, as the ranking of each competitor is determined in good part based on voting by the public from the other countries, such extreme results are not irrelevant. And the point I'm making here is not about Eurovision, but about the UK.

Friday, May 7, 2021

Presedintele Iohannis spune ca Romania sta "extrem de bine" cu vaccinarea anti-covid, dar realitatea este alta (RO)

 Anuntul triumfalist de ieri al presedintelui Iohannis cum ca, spre deosebire de multe alte tari, Romania sta "extrem de bine" in privinta campaniei de vaccinare anti-covid este inselator.

Exista un singur aspect la care Romania este acum intr-o situatie mai buna decat alte tari europene, si anume faptul ca a obtine un vaccin a ajuns sa fie mult mai usor: nu mai exista conditii de varsta sau de comorbiditate, nu mai este nevoie de programare prin sistemul centralizat, pur si simplu oamenii se pot prezenta spontan la centrele de vaccinare deschise, exista destule doze de vaccin pentru toti.

Fara indoiala, acesta este un lucru foarte important din punctul de vedere al individului care isi doreste vaccinul. In tarile occidentale, programarile sunt inca restrictionate pe categorii de varsta, de exemplu tinerii fara anumite comorbiditati mai au de asteptat, posibil chiar luni intregi.

In schimb, din punctul de vedere al situatiei vaccinarii si al obiectivelor ei asumate (atingerea unei imunitati colective a populatiei si prevenirea sau atenuarea semnificativa a viitoarelor valuri ale pandemiei), Romania sta foarte prost comparativ cu alte tari europene. Iar succesul relativ in disponibilitatea vaccinurilor pentru cei doritori mascheaza de fapt o mare problema, care este pe cale sa duca la esecul campaniei de vaccinare.

Pentru a lamuri situatia, este suficient sa privim indicatorii-cheie ai progresului vaccinarii in tarile Uniunii Europene.

Monday, April 12, 2021

Este Romania prea rigida in administrarea dozei a doua de vaccin anti-covid? Statistici, explicatii, interpretari... (RO)

Romania a inceput relativ bine campania de vaccinare anti-covid, fiind de-a lungul lunii feburarie printre primele tari din UE ca numar de doze de vaccin administrate la suta de locuitori. Dar la sfarsitul lunii februarie a franat brusc ritmul vaccinarii, fiind ajunsa din urma de media UE. A mers apoi in pas cu media UE pana in ultima saptamana a lunii martie, cand Romania a inceput sa ramana tot mai mult in urma mediei la dozele administrate - nu ca ar fi incetinit, ci pentru ca celelalte tari au accelerat semnificativ, in timp ce tara noastra a ramas intr-o viteza 'de croaziera' de cca. 55.000 de doze de vaccin administrate zilnic (spre comparatie, Franta, care a inceput mult mai incet in ianuarie, a ajuns recent la peste 500.000 de doze pe zi, cu o populatie doar de 3 ori si jumatate mai mare decat a Romaniei).

Graficul de mai jos al numarului de doze de vaccin administrate la suta de locuitori ilustreaza aceasta evolutie in trei acte: Romania deasupra mediei UE in februarie, in pas cu media UE in martie, si ramanand din ce in ce mai mult in urma de atunci.


Aceasta ramanere in urma nu este deocamdata dramatica. Chiar daca Romania este acum printre tarile din UE cele mai intarziate cu vaccinarea, inca nu a pierdut contactul cu plutonul si mai poate recupera daca accelereaza campania de vaccinare in perioada urmatoare, mai ales ca in tara au intrat pana acum doze destule (cu peste 2 milioane mai multe decat numarul dozelor deja administrate). Penuria de vaccinuri, care s-a manifestat acut in februarie, nu mai este acum o problema - exista doze suficiente pentru a accelera semnificativ vaccinarea.

Dar exista o diferenta in campania de vaccinare din Romania fata de alte tari UE care merita discutata, pentru ca ar putea avea implicatii importante in depasirea mai rapida, sau dimpotriva, agravarea si prelungirea actualului val al pandemiei. 

Diferenta dintre Romania si 'mainstream-ul' european este ilustrata de faptul ca, desi se afla sub media UE la numarul de doze administrate (raportat la populatie), Romania este totusi sensibil peste media UE la proportia celor complet vaccinati (care au primit ambele doze de vaccin):



Cu alte cuvinte, Romania a administrat mai putine doze de vaccin la suta de locuitori, dar are mai multi complet vaccinati (adica a administrat a doua doza in proportie mai mare decat media UE).

Care este explicatia acestui aparent paradox si ce inseamna acest lucru?

Monday, March 22, 2021

Cutting through the noise on vaccines, some counter-intuitive truths (EN)

Without false modesty, this blog has been ahead of the curve on the AstraZeneca (AZ) covid vaccines affair. It exposed almost two months ago the arrogant lies of Pascal Soriot, AZ's CEO, in his attempts to bamboozle the EU into accepting that it should be treated as a second-class client, hinted at the likely foul play by the UK Government and at the toxic mix with Brexit politics. By March, statements made here - e.g. on the de facto vaccine export ban instituted by the UK or on the need to limit exports to ensure that AZ is serving fairly its EU contract - were part of the line taken by senior EU officials, such as European Council President Charles Michel, or European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen

On the other hand, this blog didn't hesitate to call out the ineptitude of some national leaders' comments on the AZ vaccine and of some national regulators' decisions on its roll-out - a stupidity compounded by last week's temporary suspension of the vaccine in almost half of the Member States, based on mainly political considerations, in spite of the advice of EU's own regulator. And it also criticised the Commission's short-lived intention to invoke Art.16 of the Northern Ireland protocol as a very consequential political gaffe, which gave a pretext for the UK to try to wriggle out of its legal obligations.

As the vaccine-related escalation between the EU and the UK is now in full swing, the ongoing war of narratives creates a lot of noise that can easily distract from the fundamentals. It's therefore timely to take a step back, look at the bigger picture and scratch a bit the surface to bring up some rather counter-intuitive insights. 

I will try to argue that:

  • the AZ (and broader covid vaccines) scandal is more of a political stake than an actual public health issue; 
  • in the medium term the EU's problem is not the shortage of vaccines, but a very different one;
  • UK's apparent triumph on the vaccines is far from vindicating Brexit, rather the contrary; and 
  • the EU is very well positioned for success in the longer term, but only if it manages to overcome its existential challenges in the short term.