Syrians are free (EN)

A famous Jewish-Romanian Christian Orthodox theologian and martyr of political persecution under the fascist and communist regimes, Nicolae Steinhardt, famously wrote after years of suffering for his beliefs that the essence of freedom is the physical courage in the face of death.

By this measure, a significant part of the Syrian people have already tasted and achieved freedom in an absolute sense that many in the 'free world' will never come even close to experiencing. Standing up in peaceful protest for months in spite of the Assad regime's murderous crackdown, they show once more that human nature can overcome itself and reach to something higher.

This is what the regime has been doing these days in the city of Homs.
And this is how protesters responded last night in the city center:

Cine mai apara ordinea de drept? (RO)

Dupa ce a fost nevoita sa se recunoasca invinsa in incercarea de a desfiinta sectoarele Bucurestiului, puterea portocalie mareste miza cu reorganizarea teritoriala a intregii tari. Planul este inlocuirea actualelor judete cu 8 regiuni ('super-judete') pe baza actualelor regiuni de dezvoltare.

Si cum vrea sa faca o schimbare de asemenea anvergura si cu implicatii majore pentru tara? Pai, cum stie: prin procedura angajarii raspunderii guvernului (de fapt, un eufemism pentru retezarea oricarei dezbateri si punerea la lucru a masinii de vot, o modalitate folosita intensiv de portocalii).

Ar fi o mica problema: in cazul unei reorganizari teritoriale, procedura este ilegala (cf. art.13 alin.3 din legea 3/2000 privind organizarea si desfasurarea referendumului, "Proiectele de lege sau propunerile legislative privind modificarea limitelor teritoriale ale comunelor, oraşelor şi judeţelor se înaintează Parlamentului spre adoptare numai după consultarea prealabilă a cetăţenilor din unităţile administrativ-teritoriale respective, prin referendum. În acest caz organizarea referendumului este obligatorie").

Va surprinde?

Revolt and martyrdom (EN)

Notwithstanding the attempts (sometimes rather pathetic, like this one) to make sense of the momentous developments in the Arab world, the events there (as I argued before) remain largely incomprehensible for many Westerners.

Among others, it is mind-boggling how the protests can continue for weeks in places like Syria or Yemen, in the face of atrocious repression by desperate governments clinging to power.

I would argue that any serious effort to understand what motivates such resilience of protests should look at the cultural and especially religious background of the Arab societies, which makes so many of their youth ready for martyrdom to a degree nowhere to be seen in our time anywhere in the (post-)Christian West. The Tunisian revolt was actually sparked by such a self-inflicted act of martyrdom.

Once the barrier of fear has been broken, the fact - reinforced with fresh examples on a weekly basis - is that Muslim youth in Arab countries are far more willing to sacrifice their lives for a cause, and this willingness is nurtured and sustained in time for a lot longer than one can even imagine nowadays in Western societies. And religion plays a huge role in this: Arab revolts are re-ignited every Friday by the prayer in mosques, they follow a ritualistic pattern as much as a political one.

How we understand history (EN)

The dramatic events in the Arab world over the past couple of months have captured the attention and imagination of mankind. But how do we understand the tectonic changes that are unfolding?

Reality is not easy to put into logical categories; it is often chaotic and incomprehensible, even more so in situations of conflict and social upheaval.
However, trying to understand what is going on by forming a narrative of the events is a very powerful human instinct: we simply are designed to function by making sense of reality, by projecting some sort of pre-formed mental coherence - usually in the form of a comforting narrative - on our environment and circumstances.
And sometimes the urge to take action may be just a symptom of mental insecurity due to lack of understanding, to a failure to make credible sense of reality. Thus, action becomes an effort to regulate reality by making it fit into an acceptable narrative.

From this viewpoint, the international military intervention in Lybia pushed for by France and Britain (with the US following with some reluctance) could also be read as a symptom of mental insecurity.

The writing on the wall, since the beginning of the Arab turmoil, has been the declining influence of the West, even in a strategically crucial region in its very backyard. Remember how the regional tsunami of social protests took the West by surprise, found it unprepared and eventually forced it to go along a change that it didn't expect, didn't want, and didn't quite understand (the ideas of freedom and people power that eventually gained prevalence on the positive side are just nuggets of understanding to offer some familiar, though precarious anchor to Western opinion in an ocean of unpredictability and incomprehensibility; same with fear of islamism on the negative side).
The decline of the West's global influence and the emergence of Asia is a long-term established trend, and the understanding of this trend has more recently started to sink in even in America and Europe (particularly after the financial crisis originated in the very center of the Western economic order); but the West's influence in the resource-rich North Africa and Middle East seemed well assured through a thick web of economic, political, historic and military links. By throwing this old certainty into question, the improbable awakening of the Arab street has in fact created much insecurity in the West.
And such insecurity calls for action. Decisive action.

Embracing the opportunity (and risks) of Arab democracy (EN)

As the authoritarian order in the Arab world is shaking in the face of popular uprisings that have broken through the socially entrenched fear barrier, an equally epic struggle is taking place in the West to come to terms with its own fears vis-a-vis the Arabs, and to comprehend the until recently unimaginable prospect of Arab democracy. 

For the West, the current dilemma is whether to embrace what looks like the chance of an unprecedented democratic opening in the Middle East (and, yes, with all the risks associated to it), or stick to the old comfort zone of familiar dictators who deliver "stability and security" in a volatile region.

This shouldn't be a dilemma at all.
For the "realist" position of privileging "stability" over change is riddled with inconsistencies and, in the longer term, breeds risks at least as serious than those associated with the alternative.

Something brewing (EN)

UPDATE 2 (14/01): Developments have indeed accelerated in Tunisia - we see the collapse of the regime as we speak. This more and more resembles the fall of the communist system in Eastern Europe in 1989. To watch in the coming period the other countries mentioned in this post.

UPDATE (14/01):  A breakthrough in Tunisia! Things may accelerate in the coming period.

Something is brewing in the Islamic world.

From Iran, 18 months after the rigged presidential elections in June 2009, the main news is not that the regime is still in place, but that the green movement is still alive, managing to propagate a continued message of reason, democracy and moderation (like this one by Mir Hossein Mousavi, the real victor of the 2009 elections) that gains popular support. In fact, in spite of the brutal repression by the regime (a de facto military dictatorship that has been forced to implicitly abandon any pretense of democratic or even religious legitimacy) for a year and a half, the resistance has strengthened its grassroot base and consistently maintained the high moral ground. The standoff continues and it is very difficult to predict when the regime will collapse. For one thing, all the guns are in the regime's hands and it has repeatedly proven that it has no hesitation to use them against the people. However, following a pattern previously seen in the demise of other dictatorships like Romania's Ceausescu regime in 1989, there are small but increasingly visible cracks within the establishment.

True, Iran is shi'a, and in many ways is a standalone case.

But what is happening lately across Northern Africa - in particular Tunisia and Algeria, to some extent Egypt - also signals a broader tendency in the "Western-friendly" South Mediterranean rim: the survival instincts and vital energy of a new generation clash with the status quo of rigid dictatorships led by aging strongmen (Ben Ali, Bouteflika and Moubarak respectively). The lid that has been kept on any dissent for many years has only helped build up pressure; sooner or later, in one form or another, it has to erupt.

This is potentially a turning point. 

In a few years from now, we could have more open and inclusive societies in a traditionally volatile area that has Western Europe within missile (or suicide bombing) range. But the eventual transformation is not risk-free, and increased radicalization is one of the possible outcomes.